Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
